Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-18 0.021741 0.024665 0.027842 0.031554 0.035773 0.040422 0.045935
2025-05-25 0.016669 0.020566 0.025175 0.031033 0.038290 0.047000 0.058268
2025-06-01 0.014280 0.018651 0.024125 0.031495 0.041181 0.053507 0.070438
2025-06-08 0.012344 0.016889 0.022852 0.031267 0.042874 0.058373 0.080738
2025-06-15 0.011254 0.016032 0.022560 0.032159 0.045970 0.065206 0.094188
2025-06-22 0.009778 0.014434 0.021026 0.031077 0.046089 0.067794 0.101776
2025-06-29 0.008755 0.013349 0.020071 0.030666 0.047041 0.071542 0.111279
2025-07-06 0.007732 0.012146 0.018800 0.029613 0.046859 0.073491 0.118112
2025-07-13 0.007355 0.011886 0.018916 0.030679 0.050013 0.080786 0.133987
2025-07-20 0.006955 0.011544 0.018857 0.031433 0.052701 0.087531 0.149551
2025-07-27 0.006640 0.011304 0.018929 0.032389 0.055776 0.095135 0.167226
2025-08-03 0.006148 0.010718 0.018370 0.032214 0.056887 0.099486 0.179615
2025-08-10 0.005730 0.010229 0.017949 0.032265 0.058442 0.104823 0.194445
2025-08-17 0.005264 0.009617 0.017261 0.031779 0.058993 0.108432 0.206488
2025-08-24 0.004991 0.009326 0.017112 0.032250 0.061322 0.115447 0.225571
2025-08-31 0.004646 0.008867 0.016615 0.032016 0.062285 0.119969 0.240230
2025-09-07 0.004483 0.008738 0.016718 0.032931 0.065532 0.129112 0.264911
2025-09-14 0.004084 0.008117 0.015829 0.031822 0.064670 0.130121 0.273093
2025-09-21 0.003803 0.007704 0.015310 0.031401 0.065145 0.133814 0.287169
2025-09-28 0.003475 0.007169 0.014505 0.030322 0.064158 0.134417 0.294675
2025-10-05 0.003401 0.007149 0.014734 0.031414 0.067834 0.145047 0.325066
2025-10-12 0.003298 0.007059 0.014812 0.032187 0.070885 0.154601 0.353963
2025-10-19 0.003220 0.007014 0.014980 0.033166 0.074471 0.165616 0.387254